Il-provvista tal-post tal-karbonat tal-litju qed issir aktar stretta, l-indiċi tal-batterija tal-litju-jone żdied b'82.75 fil-mija matul is-sena
Recently, Guotai Junan's announcement about the third price increase of lithium resources has caused a heated discussion in the market. It believes that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate is the first to lead the rise. The supply and demand of lithium continue to be tight in a short time. Prices may remain strong.
According to Guotai Junan's analysis, the first time the price of lithium resources increased was from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. The second price increase was from the end of June this year, when the price of lithium was 90,000 yuan / ton, and by the end of September, the price of lithium was close to the historical high of 180,000 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 195,000-200,000 yuan per ton, and stocking up a year ago will become the core catalyst for the third rise.
A reporter from "Securities Daily" combed the Flush Lithium-ion Battery Index (885710) and found that during the first price increase of lithium resources, the index fluctuated less and remained at around 900 points, but it began to rise rapidly in May 2021, and once surged As high as 1700 points, during the second price increase, the index rose by 50 percent , and fell back to around 1500 points in late September. After entering November, the index started a new wave of gains. As of November 24, the index reached 1679 points, an increase of 82.75 percent during the year.
Qu Yinfei, analista tal-litju fid-Diviżjoni tal-Enerġija Ġdida ta 'Shanghai Ganglian, qal lir-reporter ta' Securities Daily li l-kontradizzjoni dejjem aktar ovvja bejn il-provvista u d-domanda wasslet għal żieda fil-prezz tar-riżorsi tal-litju. Fil-preżent, ir-raġunijiet għaż-żieda attwali fil-prezz tas-suq huma minbarra ż-żieda kontinwa fil-prezz tal-minjieri, u l-kontradizzjoni bejn il-provvista u d-domanda għadha l-qofol taż-żieda fil-prezz. waħda. Affettwat mill-għeluq ta 'ftit terminali tat-tidwib, il-provvista fuq il-post tal-karbonat tal-litju saret aktar u aktar stretta, u hemm inqas riżorsi ta' esportazzjoni. Barra minn hekk, is-sentiment downstream huwa għoli, u t-tendenza tas-suq tal-karbonat tal-litju hija relattivament ċara.
Qu Yinfei said: "The rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased downstream cost pressure, so downstream companies also intend to increase prices, but there is a lag in price transmission. During the price increase, downstream companies' profits will be due to the high price of raw materials. my country's dependence on imported lithium mines is extremely high, and rising prices of lithium mine resources are one of the future trends. Therefore, some industry chain companies actively deploy overseas lithium mines, which can effectively control the cost of raw materials and lay the foundation for subsequent company expansion. ."
Hemm ftit riżorsi domestiċi tal-mineral tal-litju, iżda r-riżorsi tal-melħ tal-litju huma sinjuri ħafna. Għalhekk, taħt l-istennija ta 'żidiet fil-prezz tar-riżorsi tal-litju, is-suq kapitali jagħti attenzjoni lill-amalgamazzjonijiet u akkwisti ta' riżorsi tal-mineral tal-litju barranin minn kumpaniji domestiċi, li jagħmel Ningde Times, Tianqi Lithium u oħrajn kumpaniji Elenkati b'mod attiv li jużaw riżorsi barranin tal-litju minerali ġew rikonoxxuti mis-suq u mfittxija mill-fondi. Min-naħa l-oħra, li jiffoka fuq il-kunċett ta 'estrazzjoni tal-litju minn lagi tal-melħ, kumpaniji elenkati b'riżorsi u teknoloġiji relatati tal-qasam tal-melħ saru wkoll il-fokus tas-suq reċenti.
Zhang Cuixia, konsulent ewlieni ta 'investiment ta' Jufeng Investment, irrimarka lir-reporter ta 'Securities Daily li jibbenefika mill-isplużjoni kontinwa f'vetturi ta' enerġija ġodda downstream, batteriji tal-litju u industriji oħra, is-settur tar-riżorsi tal-litju sar wieħed mill-aktar binarji sħan din is-sena, u taħt il-mewġa globali ta 'enerġija ġdida, il-prezz tar-riżorsi tal-litju qed jiżdied ukoll, u juri tendenza li qed tintensifika. Din it-tip ta 'żieda fil-prezz tagħmel il-upstream tal-katina tal-industrija l-akbar benefiċjarju, iżda għandna nkunu attenti għall-impatt fuq l-industrija downstream, minħabba li m'hemm l-ebda alleanza tal-industrija biex tikkoordina l-bilanċ tal-provvista u d-domanda, u ż-żieda qawwija fil- prezz tal-materja prima upstream se jaffettwa d-dħul u l-profitt nett tal-industrija downstream. Saħansitra twassal għal żieda ulterjuri fil-kontradizzjoni bejn il-provvista u d-domanda upstream u downstream.
Zhang Cuixia added: "In order to cope with the increase in resource prices, domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain companies have launched overseas lithium mine acquisitions, which has also become a hot spot for capital to pursue. However, with the current high lithium resources, the acquisition price is also rising. It may bring obvious financial pressure to listed companies, and some unpredictable risks may occur in lithium ore reserves and mining costs. At present, the lithium-ion battery sector has risen too high, and some listed companies have already had high valuations. The value premium, even if there is still room for price increases in lithium resources in the future, the risks of related listed companies are also accumulating, and the room and motivation for the increase is not high."
