The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
Min-naħa waħda, il-ġgant tal-batterija tal-litju CATL għadda l-laqgħa tal-IPO f'24 jum, u stabbilixxa rekord ġdid għal-laqgħa tal-IPO; min-naħa l-oħra, Jianruiwo Neng għal darb'oħra ħareġ avviż ta 'tnaqqis ta' azzjonist, u fl-istess ħin bassar telf ta 'aktar minn 300 miljun wan fl-ewwel kwart ta' din is-sena. Trid tkun taf li Jianrui Wo Neng ikklassifika t-tielet fil-kapaċità installata tal-batterija tal-enerġija domestika fl-2017, it-tieni biss wara CATL u BYD, u għamel profitt ta '254 miljun fl-ewwel kwart tas-sena li għaddiet. Meta r-rotta teknika ġiet aġġustata u l-politika domestika ġdida dwar is-sussidju tal-politika tal-enerġija ġiet irtirata gradwalment, ir-reshuffle tal-kumpaniji tal-batteriji tal-enerġija intensifikat. Is-sena l-oħra, mhux biss il-CATL u l-BYD skambjaw is-siġġijiet, iżda l-prestazzjoni ta 'ħafna intrapriżi żgħar u ta' daqs-ta' daqs medju naqset ukoll.
Kumpaniji tal-batteriji huma attakkati miż-żewġ naħat
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Il-batterija tal-enerġija hija l-komponent ewlieni tal-vettura tal-enerġija l-ġdida, u l-ispiża tammonta għal 30 fil-mija -50 fil-mija tal-vettura kollha. Is-sussidju jonqos, u l-intrapriża tal-batterija tal-enerġija għandha wkoll iġorr il-pressjoni korrispondenti tat-tnaqqis tal-prezz. Min-naħa waħda, il-klijenti qed jagħmlu pressjoni fuq it-tnaqqis fil-prezz tal-batterija, u min-naħa l-oħra, il-fornituri upstream qed jgħollu l-prezzijiet b'mod selvaġġ. Is-sitwazzjoni tal-kumpaniji tal-batteriji tista 'tiġi immaġinata. Anke f'CATL, fejn il-batteriji tal-litju ternarji kienu jammontaw għal kważi nofs il-bejgħ tiegħu fl-2017, il-marġini ta 'profitt gross tas-sistemi ta' batteriji tal-qawwa tal-prodott prinċipali tagħha mill-2015 sal-2017 kienu 41.40 fil-mija, 44.84 fil-mija u 35.25 fil-mija, rispettivament, li niżlu b'mod sinifikanti f' 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Sostituzzjoni tal-pjanċa tar-ras tal-batterija tal-enerġija
Skont id-dejta, l-aqwa ħames bejgħ globali ta 'batteriji tal-enerġija fl-2017 kienu CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma u LG Chem, b'bejgħ ta' 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh u 4.5GWh rispettivament. Barra minn hekk, Panasonic huwa l-mexxej fil-batteriji tal-enerġija fil-Ġappun, u LG u Samsung huma ż-żewġ batteriji tal-enerġija fil-Korea t'Isfel. Bid-daqs enormi tagħhom, huma jieħdu vantaġġ mill-iskala tagħhom u qegħdin f'pożizzjoni ta 'tmexxija fit-teknoloġija u l-awtomazzjoni tal-batteriji.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
Fl-2016, BYD ikklassifika l-ewwel fiċ-Ċina u t-tieni fid-dinja għall-batteriji tal-enerġija. Bl-emerġenza f'daqqa tal-era Ningde, il-prestazzjoni tagħha naqset fl-2017.
Madankollu, minħabba ż-żieda mgħaġġla fil-kapaċità tal-produzzjoni tal-batterija tal-enerġija u t-tnaqqis tal-politika tas-sussidju għal vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda, il-prezz tas-sistema tal-batterija tal-enerġija f'CATL tnaqqas ħafna, minn 2.28 wan/Wh fl-2015 għal 1.41 wan/Wh fl-2017, tnaqqis kumulattiv sa 38.26 fil-mija. Il-profitt nett wara t-tnaqqis ta' mhux-deduċibbli f'CATL naqas ukoll minn 2.96 biljun wan fl-2016 għal 2.47 biljun wan fl-2017.
Fil-preżent, ir-rotta teknika mainstream tal-batteriji tal-karozzi tal-passiġġieri tal-enerġija ġodda hija batteriji ternarji (batteriji ternarji huma wkoll ir-rotta teknika ewlenija tal-CATL), jiġifieri, batteriji tal-litju b'nikil-manganat tal-litju tal-kobalt jew nikil{{1} }aluminat tal-litju tal-kobalt bħala materjali tal-katodu, u l-kobalt bħala l-materjal tal-katodu. Stabbilizzaturi huma indispensabbli. Il-litju ternarju għandu densità għolja ta 'enerġija u jista' jipprovdi ħajja itwal tal-batterija. Sal-2017, il-prezz tal-batteriji tal-litju ternarju niżel għal minimu ta '1.4-1.5 wan/Wh, li huwa bażikament l-istess bħall-fosfat tal-ħadid tal-litju. Iż-żieda ta 'batteriji ternarji hija raġuni importanti għall-era Ningde biex taqbeż BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Kapaċità żejda serja tal-batterija tal-enerġija
Id-dejta turi li fl-2017, il-kapaċità installata tal-batteriji tal-enerġija tal-vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda f'pajjiżi kienet ta '36.27Gwh, żieda ta' madwar 20 fil-mija sena-fuq-sena, li kienet 'il bogħod mill-50- 60GWh stmat mill-industrija fil-bidu tal-2017; u r-rotta teknika tal-batteriji tal-litju għaddiet minn bidliet kbar. Is-sehem tas-suq tal-batteriji tal-enerġija jaqbeż l-44 fil-mija, li rdoppja mill-2016. Din hija wkoll xi ħaġa li Jian Ruiwu ma jistax jistenna.
Min-naħa l-oħra, il-produzzjoni u l-volum tal-bejgħ ta’ vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda f’pajjiżna s-sena li għaddiet kien qrib it-800,000 unità, żieda ta’ 50 fil-mija meta mqabbla mal-2016; l-output ta' vetturi tal-passiġġieri tal-enerġija ġodda laħaq 478,000 unitajiet, sena-b'-żieda fis-sena ta' aktar minn 200,000 unità. Ovvjament, ir-rata tat-tkabbir tal-kapaċità installata tal-batterija tal-enerġija ma tistax tlaħħaq mar-rata tat-tkabbir tal-produzzjoni u l-bejgħ ta 'vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda, minħabba li l-istruttura tal-produzzjoni u l-bejgħ ta' vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda inbidlet, u l-proporzjon ta 'karozzi tal-passiġġieri u vetturi speċjali żdied malajr . Taħt it-tendenza 'l isfel tas-suq il-ġdid tal-vetturi tal-passiġġieri tal-enerġija, il-vetturi tal-passiġġieri tal-enerġija ġodda li jkomplu jagħmlu progress kbir saru l-qalba tat-tkabbir tal-prestazzjoni tal-batterija tal-enerġija.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
Fiċ-Ċina, BYD hija l-aktar kompetitur ta 'theddid fl-era CATL. Dan l-ex sid tal-batterija kien qabeż minn CATL f'termini ta 'vjeġġi s-sena li għaddiet. Sabiex terġa 'tikseb il-pożizzjoni ta' tmexxija tal-batterija, BYD għamel żewġ aġġustamenti importanti: wieħed huwa li taġġusta r-rotta tat-teknoloġija tal-batterija. Mill-2017, BYD bdiet tuża batteriji tal-litju ternarji fin-negozju tagħha tal-karozzi tal-passiġġieri, u mudelli elettriċi puri prodotti fl-2018 u aktar tard se jużaw ukoll batteriji tal-litju ternarji. Madankollu, kumpaniji tal-batteriji bħal CATL u Guoxuan Hi-Tech bdew ukoll jespandu l-kapaċità tal-produzzjoni tal-batteriji ternarji. It-tieni huwa li tispara n-negozju tal-batterija tal-enerġija u tħaddem b'mod indipendenti biex tforni kumpaniji oħra ta 'vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
