In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
Dak li din l-industrija jonqosha l-aktar mhumiex flus, iżda teknoloġija matura u tim ta 'operazzjoni li jista' jiġi nnegozjat kummerċjalment.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
Iċ-ċavetta għall-konġestjoni teknika tinsab fil-batterija
Kemm jekk fiċ-Ċina jew madwar id-dinja, hemm appoġġ tekniku matur ħafna u sistema ta 'manifattura għall-manifattura tal-qoxra u l-assemblaġġ tal-vetturi, għalhekk m'hemmx għalfejn tinkwieta wisq. Għal vetturi ta 'enerġija ġodda, għalkemm huwa relattivament faċli li jiġu żviluppati drawwiet ta' konsum, jekk il-problemi ta 'ħin ta' ċċarġjar twil wisq u medda qasira ta 'cruising ma jistgħux jiġu solvuti, imbagħad meta mqabbla ma' vetturi tal-fjuwil tradizzjonali, ir-riforniment huwa mgħaġġel u l-istazzjonijiet huma densament popolati. Se jitlef l-istatus tiegħu bħala favorit ġdid fis-suq.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
L-ewwel, l-ispiża tal-kostruzzjoni tas-sit innifsu hija enormi ħafna, u l-batterija teħtieġ manutenzjoni professjonali. X'tip ta 'sieħeb kapitali jista' l-manifattur tal-batterija jikkoopera biex jikseb dan?
It-tieni hija li meta l-konsumaturi jixtru karozza, il-modulu tal-batterija fil-vettura huwa ekwivalenti għall-ħlas ta 'depożitu u l-kiri tiegħu. Din il-parti tal-investiment tista' tieħu minn 3 sa 10 snin biex tirritorna. X'tip ta 'intrapriża tista' tieħu tali riskju?
It-tielet hija li l-istandards attwali tal-batterija għadhom ma ġewx unifikati. Bħall-ewwel telefowns ċellulari, ma jistgħux jinkisbu moduli standard u interfaces unifikati. X'tip ta' kumpaniji jista' jkollhom tali-kapaċitajiet li jħarsu 'l quddiem u RD biex jifformulaw u jmexxu standards?
Għalhekk, l-aktar soluzzjoni realistika bħalissa għadha li tiċċarġja malajr u żżid il-ħajja tal-batterija.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
Fl-istess ħin, l-impatt negattiv tal-prestazzjoni tas-sigurtà ma jistax jiġi sottovalutat. Pereżempju, wara l-isplużjoni tat-telefowns ċellulari Samsung, ajruporti ewlenin adottaw regolamenti aktar stretti dwar il-ġarr u l-użu ta' batteriji tal-litju-jone. Il-problema ewlenija hija li huwa diffiċli li tinkiseb l-aktar kombinazzjoni effettiva ta 'densità tal-kapaċità u prestazzjoni tas-sikurezza tal-batterija nnifisha. Fil-preżent, m'hemm l-ebda avvanz essenzjali. Anki l-graphene, li darba kien ikrah ħafna, huwa diffiċli biex tinkiseb produzzjoni tal-massa kummerċjali fuq skala kbira-fi żmien tlieta sa ħames snin.
Il-qalba tal-problemi tar-riżorsi tinsab fil-kobalt tal-litju
Fl-aħħar tliet snin, il-prezz tal-melħ bażiku tal-litju żdied b'mod drammatiku. Mill-aħħar tal-2014 sal-2017, telgħet minn inqas minn 40,000 wan/tunnellata għal 180,000 wan/tunnellata, u mbagħad niżlet għal madwar 150,000 wan/tunnellata fl-aħħar tas-sena. Il-prezz tal-batterija-karbonat tal-litju tal-grad żdied madwar 4 sa 5 darbiet.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400 percent increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50 percent increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached 29 per pound, but there is still more than 65 percent of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Il-prezzijiet qed jogħlew ’l fuq minħabba l-iskarsezza tar-riżorsi? it-tweġiba hija negattiva.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75 percent of the world's lithium resources.
F'pajjiżi, 90 fil-mija tar-riżorsi tal-litju huma mqassma fil-punent, u l-minjieri attwali huwa prinċipalment tal-litju minerali (spodumene u lepidolite) u l-grad medju huwa baxx (0.8 fil-mija -1.4 fil-mija, inqas minn 1.465 fil-mija). f'pajjiżi barranin-3. 55 fil-mija), u l-kontenut tal-manjeżju fis-salmura huwa relattivament għoli (il-proporzjon Mg/Li huwa ġeneralment akbar minn 40, u l-Atacama Salt Lake fiċ-Ċili huwa biss 6.47), għalhekk huwa diffiċli li tuża fuq skala industrijali.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80 percent of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67 percent of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
Bit-titjib tal-użu fuq skala industrijali-u skoperti fit-teknoloġija tal-estrazzjoni, ibbażati fuq il-prinċipju li l-litju, il-kobalt u elementi oħra tal-metall ma jisparixxux, l-industrija tar-riċiklaġġ tal-batteriji tal-litju ħarġet bil-kwiet, ir-riċiklaġġ sar realtà, u id-domanda għar-riżorsi naturali se titnaqqas kif xieraq. Is-sitwazzjoni skyrocketing hija bħall-istorja tal-mineral tal-ħadid, u hija aktar ir-riżultat ta 'spekulazzjoni ta' kontroll tal-kapital internazzjonali, li ma tistax tirrifletti bis-sħiħ is-sitwazzjoni reali tal-iżvilupp industrijali.
Iċ-ċavetta għat-tħassib tal-politika hija s-sussidji
Jeħtieġ li jiġi ċċarat fehim bażiku: l-essenza tas-sussidji statali għal vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda hija li tappoġġa industrija, toħloq vantaġġ tal-ewwel-mover, u tespandi malajr is-suq, aktar milli sussidji simili għas-setturi agrikoli tradizzjonali. L-iskop huwa li tinżamm l-istabbiltà bażika tad-diska. Għalhekk, fil-futur qarib, il-politika tas-sussidju definittivament se tiġi kkanċellata.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Speċifiku għall-produzzjoni, operazzjoni u bejgħ ta 'prodotti ta' intrapriżi, il-bejgħ kurrenti ta 'vetturi elettriċi puri jidher li jikber bil-mod jew saħansitra jonqos, li għandu relazzjoni kbira mal-estensjoni tal-perjodu tal-kunsinna għal aktar minn 6 xhur. Il-problema li tirrifletti hija li l-kapaċità attwali tal-produzzjoni tal-batteriji tal-enerġija hija limitata ħafna fil-preżent. Fir-rotta teknika eżistenti, għalkemm kumpaniji relatati investew ukoll f'fabbriki tal-batteriji u proġetti bażiċi tal-melħ tal-litju (prinċipalment karbonat tal-litju u idrossidu tal-litju), iżda Il-ħin taċ-ċiklu għall-ippjanar, dimostrazzjoni, disinn, approvazzjoni, kostruzzjoni, u produzzjoni ta 'proġetti industrijali, speċjalment l-industrija kimika fejn jinsabu l-imluħa tal-litju bażiċi, ġeneralment hija 1-sentejn, u r-rilaxx fuq skala kbira tal-kapaċità tal-produzzjoni għandu jkun qabel l-2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery RD and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
Jista 'jingħad li din hija l-aħjar era għal vetturi tal-enerġija ġodda. Qegħdin ġejjin forzi ġodda, u ammont kbir ta 'kapital kien involut fl-aspetti kollha tal-minjieri, melħ bażiku tal-litju, materjali tal-elettrodi, produzzjoni ta' batteriji u manifattura ta 'vetturi permezz ta' diversi mezzi, u huwa impenjat li jaħtaf l-opportunitajiet. Il-bigwigs tradizzjonali qamu wkoll f'daqqa, jaħdmu iebes, jippruvaw jistabbilizzaw il-prinċipji fundamentali u jespandu f'oqsma ġodda. F'kelma waħda, l-aktar li jonqosha din l-industrija mhumiex flus, iżda teknoloġiji maturi li jistgħu jiġu applikati fis-suq u tim ta 'operazzjoni li jista' jiġi nnegozjat kummerċjalment.
